|
"It is inconceivable that anyone will divulge a truly effective get-rich scheme for the price of a book." - Victor
Niederhoffer
FOREX MARKET
With the US Trade Balance up today, expected to turn rather bad, we could have pretty nervous markets in the
early American session. Lately, it started to become more obvious the switch of interest of the players from the
rate differentials to the macro-economical prospects, the more so as the US hiking regime will come to an end in
the medium term. The EUR/USD has seen a very modest correction higher overnight as it rallied until 1.2015.
We set the 1.2020 and 1.1930 as short-term trigger areas - meaning that if either is broken, we could see
reasonable follow-through far beyond these levels.
On February 9th, there was a busy trading session with high volatility of the quotes (more than 300 pips). The
RON appreciated steeply to 3.5450 in the early trade, when the speculative clients became interested in taking
their profit, as well as the importers which took advantage of the attractive exchange rates for their future
acquisitions. The EUR purchases took the bids until 3.5700, the most. At this level, the commercial banks
decided to stay short on EUR and started the sell-off. Today, the local market opened at 3.5400, moved slightly to
3.5480 and then turned lower in the 3.5370 area around noon. We expect that the increase of the monetary policy
rate will induce further appreciation of the domestic currency against the hard currencies. We see the pair at
3.5100 level on Monday in case the NBR will withdrew the RON surplus.
MONEY MARKET
The National Bank refused to drain the RON 2.3bln offer of the commercial banks for the three-month CDs, as it
was below their expectation (RON 4.5bln), so the overnight interest rates fell to 6-8% levels on Friday. However,
we expect that the ON yields would range in the 8-9% area next week.
|
Domestic Markets Foreign Exchange Rates |
||||
|
NBR |
Daily Change |
Year to Date(%) |
Annualized |
|
|
EUR/RON |
3.5513 |
-0.0272 |
-3.78% |
-3.40% |
|
USD/RON |
2.9649 |
-0.0237 |
-4.85% |
-4.37% |
|
GBP/RON |
5.1640 |
-0.0437 |
-3.67% |
-3.30% |
|
CHF/RON |
2 2831 |
-0.0217 |
-3.58% |
-3.22% |
|
Interbank Market Interest Rates (%) |
||||
|
ON |
1M |
6M |
12M |
|
|
BUBID |
7.33% |
6.99% |
6.46% |
6.27% |
|
BUBOR |
8.86% |
8.63% |
8.43% |
8.24% |
|
LIBOR (EUR) |
2.35% |
2.41% |
2.71% |
2.91% |
|
LIBOR (USD) |
4.54% |
4.57% |
4.91% |
5.06% |
|
Romanian Equities |
||
|
Last |
Daily (%) |
|
|
BET |
8,350.53 |
0.20% |
|
BET-C |
4,896.59 |
0.22% |
|
BET-FI |
53,173.76 |
-1.79% |
|
RASDAQC |
1,795.15 |
-0.20% |
|
Romanian Eurobonds |
||||
|
Maturity |
Cupon |
Price |
Daily (%) |
Yield |
|
27-Jun-08 |
10.63% |
115.95 |
-0.09% |
3.45 |
|
02-Jul-10 |
5.75% |
107.89 |
0.09% |
3.75 |
|
06-May-12 |
6.50% |
125.32 |
0.46% |
3.84 |
|
22-Jun-15 |
4.125% |
98.48 |
0.34% |
4.32 |
|
Romanian State Government Bonds and T-Bills |
||||
|
Latest issues |
Auction Date |
Issue Date |
Maturity Date |
Avg. Yield |
|
RO0510DBNI36 |
08 August 2005 |
10 August 2005 |
10 August 2010 |
7.48% |
|
RO0515DBN143 |
15 August 2005 |
17 August 2005 |
17 August 2015 |
7.49% |
|
RO0508DBN155 |
15 September 2005 |
19 September 2005 |
19 September 2008 |
7.60% |
|
RO0505CTN031 |
20 September 2005 |
22 September 2005 |
22 December 2005 |
5.33% |
|
International Equities |
||||
|
Last |
Daily Change |
Year Low |
Year High |
|
|
S&P500 |
1,263.78 |
-0.15% |
1,176.84 |
1,294.18 |
|
DJI |
10,883.35 |
0.23% |
10,749.76 |
10,953.95 |
|
NASDAQ |
2,255.87 |
-0.49% |
2,205.32 |
2,331.36 |
|
XETRADAX |
5,649.60 |
0.00% |
5,323.87 |
5,726.53 |
|
NIKKEI 225 |
16,257.83 |
-1.11% |
11,414.28 |
16,747.76 |
|
IInternational Market Exchange Rates |
||
|
CURRENCY |
Latest |
Daily Change |
|
EUR/USD |
1.1971 |
-0.09% |
|
GBP/USD |
1.7454 |
0.05% |
|
USD/CHF |
1.2988 |
0.13% |
|
USD/SEK |
7.7426 |
0.15% |
|
USD/JPY |
117.56 |
-0.91% |
|
EUR/USD trading rate |
|||
|
Support |
Resistance |
||
|
Sup. 1 |
1.1930 |
Res. 1 |
1.2010 |
|
Sup. 2 |
1.1900 |
Res. 2 |
1.2050 |
|
Sup. 3 |
1.1800 |
Res. 3 |
1.2110 |
|
Sup. 4 |
1.1720 |
Res. 4 |
1.2190 |
|
Commodities |
||
|
Latest |
Daily (%) |
|
|
GOLD |
557.25 |
-0.01% |
|
SILVER |
9.49 |
-0.21% |
|
OIL (BRENT) |
60.14 |
-0.53% |
|
Interest Rates for Time Deposits of Finansbank (Romania) SA |
|||||||
|
1WK |
1M |
3M |
6M |
9M |
12M |
Minimum Amount |
|
|
USD |
0.50% |
3.00% |
3.50% |
4.25% |
4.25% |
4.50% |
USD 1,000 |
|
EUR |
0.50% |
3.00% |
3.50% |
4.00% |
4.25% |
4.25% |
EUR 1,000 |
|
RON |
1.00% |
5.0% |
5.5% |
5.5% |
5.5% |
6.00% |
RON 2,000 |
Released by FINANSBANK Romania S.A., Splaiul Unirii no.12, Bl. B6 040034, Bucharest. For further information please contact Melania Hancila Treasury & Capital Markets Division, Phone 301 73 42, Fax 318 09 61.
Disclaimer: This report does not represent an investment advice and should not be construed as a recommendation to invest in any kind of investment vehicle. The information in the report is based on sources available to the public and believed to be reliable, and there is no claim that is accurate or complete. Thereafter this information can be changed without notice.
Publicat de FINANSBANK Romania S.A., Splaiul Unirii nr.12, Bl. B6 040034, Bucuresti. Pentru mai multe informatii si intrebari, va rugam contactati Departamentul Trezorerie si Piete de capital - Melania Hancila, Telefon: 301 73 42, Fax: 318 09 61.
Acest buletin are scop informativ si nu reprezinta un sfat sau recomandare de a investi in nici un tip de instrument. Informatiile care stau la baza acestui raport zilnic au o sursa publica, considerata sigura insa, nu sustinem ca este completa. Astfel ca informatiile publicate mai sus se pot schimba fara un anunt prealabil.